Nashville growth

Nashville growth 15th largest over next 20 years

Richard Lawson

By the year 2020, the Nashville metropolitan area could be the 15th-fastest growing metro area in the United States, according to a population study conducted by Nashville Business Journal's parent company.

The findings, published in the July 6 edition of the ACBJ Research Report, project the Nashville area's population to swell from an estimated 1.09 million people in 1995 to 1.5 million people in 2020, a 37.41 percent jump. The Research Report is published by Charlotte-based American City Business Journals.

Of the eight counties in the Nashville Metropolitan Statistical Area, Rutherford County is projected to post the largest percentage increase in population from 1995 to 2020, jumping 55.45 percent from 148,041 people to 230,127 people, according to the study.

Williamson County comes in second with 50 percent projected population growth. Its population is projected to climb from 102,061 people in 1995 to 153,013 people in 2020.

Davidson County finished seventh in the MSA with a projected population growth of nearly 32 percent from 1995 to 2020. But its population is projected to grow from 530,796 people to 699,564.

Robertson County had the lowest projected growth at 23 percent. Its population is projected to grow from 38,740 people in 1995 to 58,881 in 2020.

In comparison, the Memphis metropolitan area ranked 23rd in the study with projected population growth of 30.88 percent. That area's population is projected to grow from 1.07 million in 1995 to about 1.4 million by 2020.

Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce officials hope to ensure the Nashville area does post some strong population growth numbers in the coming years. As in many cities across the country facing a tight labor market, the Chamber is trying to attract people to the area to match job growth.

"We're working to keep the numbers up on the job creation front," says Janet Miller, director of economic development for the Chamber. "You'll see not just a campaign to bring targeted businesses here but campaigns to bring targeted people here."

The "targeted" people she speaks of are college graduates. Chamber officials are actively recruiting on college campuses in a six-state area, hoping college grads make Nashville their destination for employment.

A study released last September by Nashville-based Perdue Research Group showed that job opportunity was the No. 1 reason people were moving to Nashville.

In addition, that study showed the Nashville area was attracting a good demographic.

"People who move to Nashville are most likely to be 25 to 34 years old, have no children, are well-educated and come from the South," the Perdue Research report stated.

"It's really the reason we are targeting the South," says Kathleen Feighny, manager of work force development for the Chamber.

She adds the Chamber is trying to attract even younger people and that emphasis on youth is part of the reason for going after college grads.

ACBJ's study used 32 variables to generate projections for 841 metropolitan counties. Local growth rates since 1980, county-by-county racial patterns and the U.S. Census Bureau's state-by-state population projections were among the factors researchers considered.

The Sacramento, Calif., metro area topped the list with a projected growth rate of 72.62 percent, growing from 1.6 million in 1995 to nearly 2.8 million in 2020.